2019 semiconductor sales rank forecast Intel returns to no. 1, samsung's retreat is obvious

Top semiconductor supplier sales data rankings are being replaced again.Some high-tech market research firms, which regularly publish sales rankings, have begun publishing forecasts of how their semiconductor rankings will change this year (2019).

Of the market research firms that have announced sales rankings for semiconductor suppliers, the most influential and time-honored may be the annual rankings released by Gartner.Gartner released its initial rankings in January and its final rankings in April.

In Gartner's rankings, INTEL led for 25 consecutive years from 1992 to 2016.Samsung, meanwhile, ranked second for 15 consecutive years from 2002 to 2016.In other words, the top is Intel, the second is samsung for 15 years in a row.

Starting in 2017, the top of the company has changed.Samsung took the no. 1 spot, while Intel fell to no. 2.And samsung is still no. 1 in 2018.In Gartner's final rankings, samsung led for the second year in a row, while Intel was second for the second year in a row.

Gartner released last year's sales ranking (final) on April 11.Meanwhile, Gartner predicts that falling memory prices could push samsung down the rankings this year, with Intel the best hope of a comeback and a return to the throne.

Also on March 7, 2019, about a month ahead of Gartner's forecast, market research firm IC Insights announced that samsung and Intel's rankings would be replaced in the 2019 semiconductor sales rankings.In 2019, Intel is expected to regain the no. 1 spot, while samsung will drop to no. 2.

Figure: 2016-2019 semiconductor supplier sales rankings.IC Insights was released March 7, 2019.

Intel led the way in sales in the fourth quarter of 2018

The main reason for the highest sales ranking is the falling price of semiconductor memory.DRAM prices, in particular, have been falling since last fall, significantly reducing samsung's semiconductor sales.

Most semiconductor memory markets are dominated by DRam and NAND flash memory.It is said that the market size of DRAM is very large in DRAM and NAND flash memory.The three major semiconductor memory companies, samsung, SK hynix and micron technologies, all operate DRAM and NAND flash memory, and DRAM accounts for a large portion of sales.

Prices for NAND flash memory have been falling since the start of last year, and are accelerating toward the end of the year.Until last summer, however, DRAM prices tended to stay or rise.From autumn to winter, the situation drops sharply.

Of course, Intel's decline was small, while samsung's was large.IHS Markit reported that Intel's fourth-quarter sales fell 2.3% from the previous quarter, while samsung's fell 24.9%.

Samsung posted a 24.9 percent drop from the previous quarter, almost identical to the company's quarterly results in January 2019.Sales released last quarter were down 24%, and memory sales (83% of semiconductor sales) were down 26%.

According to samsung's announcement, the average selling price of DRAM in the fourth quarter dropped by 7% to 8% compared with the previous quarter, and according to the first quarter of 2019, the performance of memory has been declining continuously.

Meanwhile, Intel's sales for the fourth quarter of 2018 were down 2.6 percent from the previous quarter.In the first quarter of 2019, Intel's performance did not appear excessive decline phenomenon.

Intel expects sales to exceed samsung's by 10 percent in 2019

Intel's first-quarter results, released April 25, 2019, show total sales for 2019 of $69 billion.While total sales for 2018 were $70.8 billion, up 13 percent from the previous year, total sales for 2019 were down 2.5 percent from the previous year.It's hard to say it went well.

Gartner predicts Intel semiconductor sales will reach $646 billion in 2019.

As for samsung's semiconductor sales, market research firm IC Insights released a forecast on March 7, 2019, showing a 19.7 percent drop in sales growth.Semiconductor sales are expected to be $58.919 billion in 2019.

With Intel's semiconductor revenue at $64.6 billion and samsung's at $58.919 billion, Intel's semiconductor revenue in 2019 will be about 10% higher than samsung's.

In addition, SK hynix or micron will take third place in 2019, with the remaining one taking fourth.The fifth to seventh spots in 2019 will come from Broadcom, Qualcomm and Texas instruments.